{"id":1161,"date":"2021-03-06T11:20:42","date_gmt":"2021-03-06T11:20:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/?p=1161"},"modified":"2021-03-06T11:20:42","modified_gmt":"2021-03-06T11:20:42","slug":"seminar-series-in-analytic-philosophy-2020-21-session-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/seminar-series-in-analytic-philosophy-2020-21-session-16\/","title":{"rendered":"Seminar Series in Analytic Philosophy 2020-21, Session 16"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Rational Polarization<br \/>\n<\/strong>Kevin Dorst (University of Pittsburgh)<\/p>\n<p>12 March 2021, 16:00 (Lisbon Time \u2013 GMT+0) | Online, via Zoom<\/p>\n<p><strong>Abstract:<\/strong> Predictable polarization is everywhere.<span class=\"gmail-Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>When we make decisions about what college to attend, or what books to read, or which friends to hang out with, we can usually predict\u2014not with certainty, but with confidence\u2014that doing so will move our opinions in a particular direction.<span class=\"gmail-Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Could this process be (epistemically) rational?<span class=\"gmail-Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>A collection of results establish that it can be if and only if the evidence we get is <i>ambiguous,<\/i> in the sense that it\u2019s rational to be unsure how to react to it.<span class=\"gmail-Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Thus it\u2019s theoretically possible that a rational sensitivity to ambiguous evidence is what drives predictable polarization. What I want to argue here is that it\u2019s also empirically plausible.<span class=\"gmail-Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>I\u2019ll first report the results of a simple experiment illustrating how this can work.<span class=\"gmail-Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>I\u2019ll then turn to two empirical phenomena that play a substantial role in real-world polarization: <i>confirmation bias<\/i> and <i>enclave deliberation<\/i>.<span class=\"gmail-Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>I\u2019ll argue that both processes give rise to particular profiles of evidential ambiguity, and then use simulations to show that such profiles lead to predictable polarization\u2014even amongst people whose goal is to form accurate beliefs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Free Attendance, but preregistration required:<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/registration\/\">https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/registration\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rational Polarization Kevin Dorst (University of Pittsburgh) 12 March 2021, 16:00 (Lisbon Time \u2013 GMT+0) | Online, via Zoom Abstract: Predictable polarization is everywhere.\u00a0 When we make decisions about what college to attend, or what books to read, or which friends to hang out with, we can usually predict\u2014not with certainty, but with confidence\u2014that doing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":4,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"anyone","activitypub_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1161"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1161\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1162,"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1161\/revisions\/1162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cful.demiurgos.eu\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}